Bitcoin has recently moved below an important support level, raising questions about its next move. After reaching the first target in the $86,250 – $87,500 range, a logical pullback followed, given the sharp upward movement.
Market Overview & ETF Outflows
A significant factor in the current price action is the record outflow of funds from BTC ETFs, the largest in their history. This, combined with over $500 million in liquidations, suggests that a substantial number of traders and capital have been forced out of the market. Such events often lead to increased volatility and unpredictable short-term movements.
Key Technical Scenarios
At this point, Bitcoin’s price action presents two primary scenarios:
- Retest of the $91,100 – $92,000 Zone
- Bitcoin could correct and retest the previously broken $91,100 – $92,000 level.
- If it reclaims $92,000, this could indicate a bullish reversal.
- However, failure to hold above this zone may result in another decline.
- Breakdown Below $86,250 – $87,500
- If Bitcoin fails to hold $86,250 – $87,500, a deeper decline is likely.
- The next key levels to watch are:
- 200-day moving average (~$81,000)
- Lower boundary of the descending channel (~$77,000)
- A breakdown of the $86,250 – $87,500 support zone would also confirm a continuation of the larger downtrend.
Important Considerations
- Historically, Bitcoin often does not retest broken levels before continuing its trend.
- A direct decline below $86,250 – $87,500 is possible without revisiting $91,100 – $92,000.
- Traders should consider:
- Short positions if support at $86,250 – $87,500 breaks, targeting $81,000 and $77,000.
- Long positions if Bitcoin reclaims $91,100 – $92,000, looking for a breakout.
Conclusion
The current price action is at a critical juncture. The $91,100 – $92,000 level remains a key resistance, while $86,250 – $87,500 is a crucial support. A breakout or breakdown from these zones will determine the next major move. Given Bitcoin’s tendency to skip retests, a further decline without reclaiming lost levels remains a high-probability scenario. Traders should remain cautious and adapt their strategies accordingly.
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