#FED #Bitcoin #USD #Crypto
- Bitcoin has surged in value amid a collapse in the banking sector.
- The record Bitcoin surge on exchanges seems to be needed to maintain current open positions.
- Important US inflation data is expected to show whether the Fed will soften its rhetoric
- BTC technical price forecast
Against the backdrop of a decline in global stock indices and a collapse in classic banking sector stocks, BTC showed a sharp rise. The BTC/USDT price reached the 200-day moving average, as I expected earlier, but failed to overcome it. As a result, the price rebounded and went back to the local highs we already saw in mid-February this year.
Many analysts describe what is happening as the market’s reaction to possible reversal of FRS due to bankruptcies in USA banking sector, which undoubtedly takes place. But based on the liquidation data on the exchanges, it was a short-squeeze, which was the strongest since 20 January this year. Also yesterday, data began to come in on record BTC additions to exchanges. This comes in 2 ways: either to fix and sell off or to maintain current open positions. Right now it looks more like the 2nd option. If this is indeed the case, the market still has fuel for further gains.
Important US inflation data is expected, which will show whether the Fed will soften its rhetoric.
Inflation Data
US inflation data will be released today, which now has even more weight than before. If the CPI data indicates a further decline, it will definitely add positivity to the markets and give the Fed a chance to soften its rhetoric. However, bad inflation data will put the Fed in an awkward position and it will be difficult to clearly predict investor behavior in this situation.
Technically, BTC/USDT returned to the level of 23800 – 24450 again and even managed to pierce it. In case the price fixes above the 24450 mark, we can expect the upward movement to continue. The next resistance levels are near 28500 and 31500.
Conclusions
The market is clearly waiting for US CPI data. Positive data could push the BTC to near 28500, as there is no trading between that level and the current one. In case of a bad CPI data, it is difficult to say for sure how the market will react. The reaction is likely to be negative, but it is unlikely to be too strong, as the market understands that the Fed has less room for maneuver in the current situation.
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